The joys and worries of carbon fiber "heavy volume"

The joys and worries of carbon fiber "heavy volume"

Since the end of 2021, a number of 10,000-ton carbon fiber expansion projects have been put into operation one after another. In the next few years, these production capacities will be gradually released, which will ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry and lay the foundation for China's carbon fiber industry to open the era of large tow and low-cost era.

There are also hidden worries: the expansion speed is too fast, far exceeding the demand growth; many new and expansion projects, the technical progress is not much, and does not have international competitive advantage.

The price of carbon fiber, which has been rising for many years, is showing its weakness. BCF data show that on June 28, the mainstream carbon fiber prices were slightly lower than in early June. Manufacturers feedback, more inventory, shipping pressure. 2021 since the end of the year, a number of 10,000 tons of expansion projects have been put into production, the word "surplus" is increasingly mentioned in the industry. Some industry insiders believe that after 3 years of continuous rise, China's carbon fiber prices are higher than the international level, wind power and other downstream industries are not very active in procurement, carbon fiber prices will benefit the entire industry chain if they can be reduced to the right level.

Carbon fiber is an inorganic polymer fiber made from organic fibers such as polyacrylonitrile or asphalt, viscose, etc., which is formed by carbonization of carbon main chain structure under high temperature environment. Because of its excellent mechanical properties, carbon fiber is known as the "king of new materials" and "black gold" in the 21st century. The combination of carbon fiber and resin, metal, ceramics, etc. can form advanced carbon fiber composite materials, from rockets, large aircraft, ships, to wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen storage tanks, to golf clubs, badminton rackets, its have a wide range of applications.

Data show that the total demand for carbon fiber in China in 2021 is 62,379 tons, up 27.7% year-on-year. Among them, the supply of domestic fiber is 29,250 tons, accounting for 46.9% of the total demand. 2021 since the end of the year, a number of companies put into production carbon fiber 10,000 tons of expansion projects.

Jilin Economic and Technological Development Zone recently disclosed that Jilin Carbon Valley, a supplier of raw carbon fiber, intends to invest 1.2 billion yuan in the zone to build a new project with an annual output of 60,000 tons of high-performance carbon fiber raw silk. At present, the project has completed the pre-selection of the site, to be submitted to the review will be considered, you can sign an agreement to enter the zone.

Jilin is the largest carbon fiber industry base in China. Jilin Chemical Fiber Group is the main body of the province's carbon fiber industry implementation, its core assets include Jilin Carbon Valley, carbon fiber and composite materials manufacturers Jilin Chemical Fiber.

In the recent year, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group has accelerated the landing of expansion projects. Taking carbon fiber raw silk as an example, as of the end of the first quarter, Jilin Carbon Valley has 45,000 tons of raw silk flexible production line capacity, of which 40,000 tons reached production at the beginning of this year. The 150,000-ton phase I project under construction is expected to contribute 40,000 to 60,000 tons of capacity if it is put into operation in August as scheduled.

In addition, Zhongfu Shenying, Guangwei Composite, Shanghai Petrochemical, etc. will also launch 10,000-ton projects.

Zhongfu Shenying's director Jin Liang introduced that the company's first 10,000-ton project in Xining, Qinghai, will be put into operation in September 2021; the second 14,000-ton project has already started construction and is expected to be put into operation at the end of this year.

The company's business covers polyacrylonitrile, raw silk, carbon fiber and a variety of downstream composite materials. According to the information, Inner Mongolia Guangwei carbon fiber project has a planned capacity of 10,000 tons and is expected to be put into production by the end of this year.

Shanghai Petrochemical, a major project in Shanghai, is accelerating the resumption of production of 24,000 tons/year of raw filament and 12,000 tons/year of 48K large tow carbon fiber, which is scheduled to be completed in 2024.

According to Lin Gang, a carbon fiber expert and general manager of Guangzhou Scio Carbon Fiber Technology Co. China has built an industrial base for industrial application of carbon fiber, cultivated a number of related enterprises, and most of the technology has reached a high level. The above expansion capacity will be gradually released in the following years, which will ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry and lay the foundation for China's carbon fiber industry to open the era of large filament bundles and low-cost era.

BCF data show that on June 28, the domestic carbon fiber prices fell slightly. t300 level 12K carbon fiber market reference price of 175 yuan / kg; t300 level 24/25K carbon fiber reference price of 145 yuan to 150 yuan per kg; t300 level 48/50K carbon fiber reference price of 140 yuan / kg, the above varieties of prices than in early June have been slightly reduced. This state of minor downward adjustment has started since April this year.

BCF carbon fiber analyst Song Jia said that the reason for carbon fiber price adjustment is: on the supply side, carbon fiber new production capacity has been put into production one after another, and the production of T300 level large filament bundles has increased significantly; on the demand side, on the one hand, due to the epidemic, downstream users are less active in taking orders, on the other hand, some orders are transferred and domestic demand is reduced.

In contrast, in 2021, China's carbon fiber industry can be described as "a silk is hard to find". According to Lin Gang's analysis, over the past three years, the market demand represented by wind power has surged, and the effective supply is relatively insufficient, leading to a sharp rise in carbon fiber prices.

But the carbon fiber industry expansion momentum, but also let Lin just worry: the expansion speed is too fast, far beyond the growth of demand; many new and expansion projects, technological progress is not much, and does not have international competitive advantage. "Simple repeated expansion is not desirable. If the industry does not pay attention to these issues, continue to 'boom' dry, the industry will soon enter the price bloodbath stage, non-aerospace applications companies may again fall into the situation of industry-wide losses."

However, there are many people who oppose the "surplus" point of view, and brokerage researchers are among the representatives. They believe that carbon fiber demand potential, such as the initial scale of wind power, photovoltaic industry carbon carbon composite materials and hydrogen vehicles equipped with hydrogen storage cylinders and other pressure vessels, rail transportation. However, the current price of carbon fiber is too high, which limits the promotion of carbon fiber applications. With the technological progress, localization of equipment, scale effect, the cost of the entire industry chain is expected to decline, when the downstream applications can be further opened, once the demand is released in large quantities, can effectively digest the new production capacity.